Britain Doesn’t Have an ADHD Overdiagnosis Problem
The real crisis is the millions going undiagnosed and the cost in crime, addiction, and lost potential
In December, the government commissioned Peter Fonagy to investigate rising demand for ADHD and autism services. Published last week, his interim findings claim children are being “incentivised” to seek ADHD diagnoses. This framing risks obscuring a bigger problem: the catastrophic consequences of undiagnosed ADHD.
ADHD is not just a difficulty concentrating. It is a condition that shapes how people experience and move through the world - driving impulsivity, emotional volatility and a painful sensitivity to criticism. Left unmanaged, it can be devastating. People with ADHD are around five times more likely to attempt suicide. Those who claim to be “a little bit ADHD” ought to reflect on that.
The media would have you believe diagnoses are spiralling out of control. The truth is the opposite. Just one in nine adults with ADHD have been identified, leaving around two million people without recognition or support. Closing that gap for future generations won’t just help individuals, it will put a dent in some of the country’s biggest problems.
A staggering one in five prisoners are believed to have undiagnosed ADHD. They were not born criminals. ADHD medication has been shown to reduce offending by up to 25 per cent. But treatment depends on diagnosis, and too many have been missed thanks to poor awareness and long waiting lists. Routine screening in prisons would be a step forward; early diagnosis would reduce offending in the first place.
When ADHD goes unrecognised, many search desperately for relief, using drugs or alcohol to quieten racing thoughts. One study found more than a third of illicit psychostimulant users had undiagnosed ADHD. Across Britain, county lines networks are expanding and cocaine use is surging. You don’t need a dataset to see it - just go to a small town pub on a Saturday night. It’s just one piece of a bigger puzzle, but giving children with ADHD an early opportunity to build healthy coping strategies reduces the risk they turn to self-medication.
The economic costs are just as stark. People with ADHD face a 70 per cent higher risk of long-term unemployment - a waste of talent and a drag on productivity. As AI takes over routine tasks, these are the very people who bring the creativity and lateral thinking businesses prize (just ask Richard Branson). Catching ADHD early turns the tables: it makes being in work in adulthood more likely and boosts earnings potential.
With around 600,000 16–24-year-olds not in education, employment or training (Neet) because of mental health conditions or neurodiversity, we need a cultural shift. ADHD must not be an excuse to opt out of work. As Alan Milburn has suggested, GPs could prescribe work coaches for young people with ADHD, helping them to play to their strengths and overcome the obstacles they face. Countries where this approach is commonplace, like the Netherlands and Denmark, have significantly lower Neet rates than the UK. The system needs to focus on what people with ADHD can do, not what they can’t.
The incentives in the benefits system also need addressing. ADHD shouldn’t routinely qualify people for the highest category for Personal Independence Payments, reserved for those who can’t walk 20 metres unaided or plan a journey beyond 200 metres. Yet more than 40,000 people are claiming up to £10,000 a year on this basis. The government must urgently revisit eligibility criteria and crack down on “sickfluencers” sharing tips on how to maximise payouts. For most people with ADHD, the answer should be work, not welfare.
There are systemic issues to fix. But the evidence is clear: those who understand and learn to manage ADHD are more likely to build stable, independent lives than those who are left in the dark. With more than 270,000 children waiting, often for years, for ADHD assessments, the government’s priority should be getting them seen and supported, not casting doubt on diagnoses. Public finances are tight. But this investment would pay for itself and transform lives.